Here’s an English response summarizing the current state and key drivers of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield:

Current 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (as of May 13, 2025)

Recent Levels: The 10-year yield approached 4.45%, hitting a one-month high of 4.447% on May 12 before rising further to 4.463% (as of 3:45 PM ET on May 13).

Market Moves: The yield climbed 8 basis points (bps) on May 13, following a 6 bps increase the prior day, amid heightened trading volume in Treasury futures.

Key Drivers of the Rise

Risk-On Sentiment

Optimism over a temporary tariff reduction deal fueled a rally in U.S. equities (S&P 500 +3.3%, Nasdaq 100 +4%), reducing demand for safe-haven Treasuries.

Investors rotated into riskier assets, pushing yields higher as bond prices fell.

New Bond Supply Pressure

A surge in corporate debt issuance increased overall supply in the bond market, contributing to upward pressure on yields.

Technical Factors

Short-term yields rose ~10 bps, while long-term yields gained ~5 bps, narrowing the yield curve (e.g., 2s10s spread at 46.5 bps).

Yield Curve Snapshot (May 13, 3:45 PM ET)

Key Maturities:

2-year: 3.9935%

5-year: 4.1029%

10-year: 4.463%

30-year: 4.8999%

Spreads:

2s10s: 46.5 bps

5s30s: 79.5 bps

Market Outlook

Short-Term Volatility: Uncertainty over U.S. economic data, global geopolitics (e.g., trade policies, elections), and monetary policy signals may keep yields elevated.

Medium-Term Risks: Potential fiscal measures (e.g., tax cuts) or shifts in the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status could heighten long-term inflation expectations, further lifting yields.

Conclusion

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains sensitive to risk sentiment, supply dynamics, and macroeconomic policy shifts. Traders are closely monitoring economic indicators and Fed communications for clues on the yield trajectory.

Let me know if you'd like a deeper dive into any specific factor! 📈📉